Bahrom Vafoev Stadium · Referee A. Rahimqulov · Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Mash'al vs Navbahor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.54 expected goals for Mash'al and 2.18 for Navbahor, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Navbahor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Navbahor win
75.3% probability
Expected goals
0.54 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mash'al home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Navbahor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Navbahor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 8% / 17% / 75% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.54 goals for Mash'al and 2.18 for Navbahor, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–215.6%
- 0–114.4%
- 0–311.4%
- 1–28.5%
- 1–17.8%
Recent form
Mash'al
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pakhtakor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sogdiana · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Navbahor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Andijan · 0-1 (L)
Navbahor
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Samarqand · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buxoro · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nasaf · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mash'al · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 55 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 24 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 21 | 53 |
| 3 | Navbahor | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 46 |
| 4 | Buxoro | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 40 |
| 5 | Olmaliq | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 39 |
| 6 | Lokomotiv | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 39 |
| 7 | Nasaf | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 38 |
| 8 | Qizilqum | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 33 |
| 9 | Andijan | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | -3 | 30 |
| 10 | Dinamo Samarqand | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 29 |
| 12 | Surkhon | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -9 | 28 |
| 13 | Kokand-1912 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 14 | Bunyodkor | 24 | 7 | 2 | 15 | -16 | 23 |
| 15 | Xorazm | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -14 | 23 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 24 | 1 | 1 | 22 | -37 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Navbahor win, at 75.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.