Central Stadium · Analysis updated 07:54 UTC
Mashuk-KMV vs Dinamo Kirov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.86 expected goals for Mashuk-KMV and 0.91 for Dinamo Kirov, a combined total of 1.77. That distribution gives Dinamo Kirov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.9% probability
Expected goals
0.86 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mashuk-KMV home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Kirov away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Kirov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 32% / 33% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.86 goals for Mashuk-KMV and 0.91 for Dinamo Kirov, a combined 1.77 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.0%
- 0–115.5%
- 1–014.7%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–27.0%
Recent form
Mashuk-KMV
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Kirov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Sokol Saratov · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Volgar Astrakhan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Novosibirsk · 3-1 (W)
Dinamo Kirov
- 2026-10-18T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Vladivostok · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-14T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Ska-khabarovsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mashuk-KMV · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaluga · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League A - Division A Gold table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodina Moskva II | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 30 |
| 2 | Dinamo Kirov | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 27 |
| 3 | Novosibirsk | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 4 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 |
| 6 | Mashuk-KMV | 14 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Dinamo Bryansk | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 16 |
| 8 | Volgar Astrakhan | 14 | 1 | 11 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 9 | Kaluga | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -7 | 10 |
| 10 | FK Sokol Saratov | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.