Al Salam Stadium · Referee E. S. Shaban · Analysis updated 19:52 UTC
Masr vs Ghazl El Mehalla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Masr and 0.98 for Ghazl El Mehalla, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Masr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.7% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Masr home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ghazl El Mehalla away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.6%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–08.0%
Recent form
Masr
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Azam · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Future FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Azam · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs El Mokawloon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zamalek SC · 3-0 (W)
Ghazl El Mehalla
- 2026-10-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittihad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Smouha SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Abu Qair Semad · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Zamalek SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs National Bank of Egypt · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-13T14:00:00.000Z · Masr 3-2 Ghazl El Mehalla (Premier League)
- 2026-02-20T19:30:00.000Z · Masr 0-0 Ghazl El Mehalla (Premier League)
- 2025-03-12T19:30:00.000Z · Masr 3-0 Ghazl El Mehalla (Premier League)
- 2025-02-23T14:00:00.000Z · Masr 2-0 Ghazl El Mehalla (Premier League)
- 2024-12-12T18:00:00.000Z · Masr 1-3 Ghazl El Mehalla (League Cup)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Future FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Masr | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | National Bank of Egypt | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Smouha SC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Petrojet | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | AL Masry | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | El Geish | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Enppi | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 19 | Abu Qair Semad | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | El Gouna FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.