Estadio Matagalpa Yaule · Analysis updated 13:51 UTC
Matagalpa vs San Marcos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Matagalpa and 1.95 for San Marcos, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives San Marcos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
San Marcos win
63.2% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Matagalpa home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Marcos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 16% / 21% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Matagalpa and 1.95 for San Marcos, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 49%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.9%
- 0–211.6%
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–37.5%
Recent form
Matagalpa
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Managua · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-15T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Walter Ferretti · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Estelí · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Diriangén · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T01:00:00.000Z · H vs UNAN Managua · 1-0 (W)
San Marcos
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 35 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | UNAN Managua | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Estelí | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Walter Ferretti | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 17 |
| 7 | San Marcos | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -8 | 11 |
| 8 | Jalapa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 9 | Matagalpa | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -22 | 9 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is San Marcos win, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.