· Analysis updated 09:57 UTC
Matebele vs Orapa United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Matebele and 1.72 for Orapa United, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Orapa United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Orapa United win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Matebele home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Orapa United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 27% / 24% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Matebele and 1.72 for Orapa United, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–27.8%
- 2–16.8%
Recent form
Matebele
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Township Rollers · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs TAFIC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tonota · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Enesia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Police XI · 0-1 (L)
Orapa United
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Police XI · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs TAFIC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enesia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nico United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Police XI · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gaborone United | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Tonota | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Sua Flamingoes | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Centre Chiefs | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Orapa United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Extension Gunners | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | TAFIC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Police XI | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Galaxy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Nico United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Township Rollers | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Enesia | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Matebele | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | BDF XI | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Prisons XI | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Morupule Wanderers | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Orapa United win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.