Mátészalka vs Ózd Sajóvölgye Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Mátészalka and 2.25 for Ózd Sajóvölgye, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Ózd Sajóvölgye the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ózd Sajóvölgye win

57.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 2.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mátészalka home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ózd Sajóvölgye away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ózd Sajóvölgye to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 22% / 20% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Mátészalka and 2.25 for Ózd Sajóvölgye, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Mátészalka win22%

Draw20%

Ózd Sajóvölgye win58%

Double chance 1X

42%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–29.3%
1–18.3%
1–37.0%
0–26.9%
2–26.3%

Recent form

Mátészalka

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ózd Sajóvölgye · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Eger · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kozarmisleny FC · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs DEAC · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Füzesabony · 0-3 (L)

Ózd Sajóvölgye

2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Diósgyőr II · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hajdúnánás · 9-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mátészalka · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gödöllő · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Emodi · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NB III - Northeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ózd Sajóvölgye	13	11	0	2	31	33
2	Cigand SE	13	10	2	1	25	32
3	DEAC	13	8	2	3	14	26
4	Debrecen II	13	8	1	4	10	25
5	Gödöllő	13	7	1	5	8	22
6	Kisvárda II	13	5	6	2	6	21
7	Mátészalka	13	5	5	3	6	20
8	Diósgyőr II	13	5	4	4	3	19
9	Tiszaújváros	13	5	2	6	-3	17
10	Füzesabony	13	5	2	6	-3	17
11	Eger	13	5	2	6	-12	17
12	Salgótarjáni BTC	13	4	0	9	-11	12
13	Tiszafuredi VSE	12	3	1	8	-12	10
14	Hajdúnánás	12	3	1	8	-18	10
15	Tarpa	13	3	0	10	-20	9
16	Nyiregyhaza II	13	1	1	11	-24	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ózd Sajóvölgye win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.