· Analysis updated 07:29 UTC
Mátészalka vs Tarpa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.39 expected goals for Mátészalka and 0.74 for Tarpa, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Mátészalka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mátészalka win
74.1% probability
Expected goals
2.39 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mátészalka home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tarpa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mátészalka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 16% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.39 goals for Mátészalka and 0.74 for Tarpa, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.5%
- 1–010.5%
- 3–010.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–17.7%
Recent form
Mátészalka
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tarpa · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiszafuredi VSE · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Cigand SE · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiszaújváros · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ózd Sajóvölgye · 2-1 (W)
Tarpa
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kisvárda II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Debrecen II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyiregyhaza II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Salgótarjáni BTC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiszafuredi VSE · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · Mátészalka 4-0 Tarpa (NB III - Northeast)
- 2024-08-24T14:30:00.000Z · Mátészalka 1-2 Tarpa (Magyar Kupa)
NB III - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ózd Sajóvölgye | 13 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 33 |
| 2 | Cigand SE | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 32 |
| 3 | DEAC | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | Debrecen II | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 25 |
| 5 | Gödöllő | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 22 |
| 6 | Kisvárda II | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | Mátészalka | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 8 | Diósgyőr II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 9 | Tiszaújváros | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 10 | Füzesabony | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 11 | Eger | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 17 |
| 12 | Hajdúnánás | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 13 |
| 13 | Salgótarjáni BTC | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Tiszafuredi VSE | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -13 | 10 |
| 15 | Tarpa | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -20 | 9 |
| 16 | Nyiregyhaza II | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mátészalka win, at 74.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.