Mathare United vs Bandari Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.59 expected goals for Mathare United and 0.50 for Bandari, a combined total of 1.09. That distribution gives Mathare United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 31%, with the draw at 44%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 10% for over 2.5 goals and 18% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 34%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 31% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

75.0% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.59 – 0.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bandari away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 31% / 44% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.59 goals for Mathare United and 0.50 for Bandari, a combined 1.09 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 10% and both teams to score at 18%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 34%.

Match result (1X2)

Mathare United win31%

Draw44%

Bandari win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

56%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals30%

Over 2.5 goals10%

Over 3.5 goals3%

Both teams to score18%

Correct score

0–033.5%
1–019.8%
0–116.8%
1–19.9%
2–05.9%

Recent form

Mathare United

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs KCB · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs APS Bomet · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandari · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulinzi Stars · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mara Sugar · 1-0 (W)

Bandari

2026-10-24T13:15:00.000Z · A vs GOR Mahia · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-19T13:15:00.000Z · H vs 3K · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Leopards · 0-0 (D)
2026-06-14T09:00:00.000Z · A vs KCB · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mathare United · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FKF Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	GOR Mahia	3	3	0	0	4	9
2	Mara Sugar	3	1	2	0	1	5
3	AFC Leopards	2	1	1	0	1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	1	1	0	1	4
5	Shabana	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	KCB	3	1	1	1	0	4
7	Murang'a SEAL	2	1	0	1	2	3
8	Tusker	1	1	0	0	2	3
9	Posta Rangers FC	3	1	0	2	-4	3
10	3K	2	0	2	0	0	2
11	Nairobi United	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Migori Youth	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Bandari	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Mathare United	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Ulinzi Stars	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Kenya Police	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	APS Bomet	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Mombasa Elite	2	0	0	2	-2	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 18% and over 2.5 goals at 10%.

A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.