· Analysis updated 19:36 UTC
Mathare United vs Nairobi United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Mathare United and 0.67 for Nairobi United, a combined total of 1.35. That distribution gives Mathare United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 31%, with the draw at 39%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 15% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 26%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 31% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.7% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 31% / 39% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Mathare United and 0.67 for Nairobi United, a combined 1.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 15% and both teams to score at 24%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 26%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 70% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
61%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–026.0%
- 1–017.6%
- 0–117.5%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–05.9%
Recent form
Mathare United
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs KCB · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs APS Bomet · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandari · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulinzi Stars · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mara Sugar · 1-0 (W)
Nairobi United
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabana · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KCB · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs GOR Mahia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kenya Police · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-16T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Posta Rangers FC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · Mathare United 1-2 Nairobi United (FKF Premier League)
- 2025-12-04T13:00:00.000Z · Mathare United 1-0 Nairobi United (FKF Premier League)
- 2024-06-07T09:00:00.000Z · Mathare United 3-2 Nairobi United (Super League)
- 2023-11-15T12:00:00.000Z · Mathare United 2-0 Nairobi United (Super League)
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Mara Sugar | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | AFC Leopards | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Homeboyz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Shabana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | KCB | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Murang'a SEAL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Posta Rangers FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | 3K | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Nairobi United | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Migori Youth | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Bandari | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Ulinzi Stars | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Kenya Police | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | APS Bomet | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Mombasa Elite | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 15%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.