· Analysis updated 14:34 UTC
Matlock Town vs Rotherham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Matlock Town and 1.75 for Rotherham, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Rotherham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rotherham win
68.0% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Matlock Town home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rotherham away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rotherham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 10% / 22% / 68% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.50 goals for Matlock Town and 1.75 for Rotherham, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
32%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.4%
- 0–216.1%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–39.4%
- 1–19.2%
Recent form
Matlock Town
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kettering Town · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nuneaton Town · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lichfield City · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Carlton Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotherham · 1-1 (D)
Rotherham
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gillingham · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bradford · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Exeter City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crewe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs York · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · Matlock Town 1-1 Rotherham (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rotherham win, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.