Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.65 for Renofa Yamaguchi, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Renofa Yamaguchi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Renofa Yamaguchi win

57.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.80 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Matsumoto Yamaga home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Renofa Yamaguchi away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Renofa Yamaguchi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 18% / 24% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.65 for Renofa Yamaguchi, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Matsumoto Yamaga win18%

Draw24%

Renofa Yamaguchi win58%

Double chance 1X

42%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

82%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

0–114.2%
0–211.7%
1–111.4%
1–29.4%
0–08.6%

Recent form

Matsumoto Yamaga

2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainare Tottori · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Albirex Niigata · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Tochigi SC · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Roasso Kumamoto · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Sagamihara · 1-3 (L)

Renofa Yamaguchi

2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gifu · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Sagamihara · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Kanazawa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Thespakusatsu Gunma · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainare Tottori · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J3 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	11	8	2	1	10	26
2	Ehime FC	11	7	2	2	12	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	11	7	2	2	9	23
4	Nara Club	11	7	2	2	6	23
5	Sagamihara	11	6	3	2	8	21
6	FC Gifu	11	6	1	4	11	19
7	Osaka	11	4	5	2	7	17
8	Roasso Kumamoto	11	4	5	2	4	17
9	Parceiro Nagano	11	5	2	4	1	17
10	Kanazawa	11	4	2	5	2	14
11	Biwako Shiga	11	4	2	5	-2	14
12	FC Ryukyu	11	4	2	5	-2	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	4	2	5	-7	14
14	Kitakyushu	11	3	4	4	-4	13
15	Matsumoto Yamaga	11	2	5	4	-3	11
16	Tochigi SC	11	2	4	5	-5	10
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	11	3	1	7	-9	10
18	Fukushima United	11	2	2	7	-6	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	11	1	2	8	-11	5
20	Kochi United	11	1	2	8	-21	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Renofa Yamaguchi win, at 57.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.