Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.38 for Sagamihara, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Sagamihara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sagamihara win

45.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.01 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Matsumoto Yamaga home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sagamihara away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sagamihara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 27% / 27% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.38 for Sagamihara, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Matsumoto Yamaga win27%

Draw27%

Sagamihara win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–112.8%
0–112.7%
1–09.3%
0–09.2%
1–28.8%

Recent form

Matsumoto Yamaga

2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Thespakusatsu Gunma · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-18T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Parceiro Nagano · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Kagoshima United · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainare Tottori · 0-1 (L)

Sagamihara

2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Osaka · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Renofa Yamaguchi · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kitakyushu · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J3 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	11	8	2	1	10	26
2	Ehime FC	11	7	2	2	12	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	11	7	2	2	9	23
4	Nara Club	11	7	2	2	6	23
5	Sagamihara	11	6	3	2	8	21
6	FC Gifu	11	6	1	4	11	19
7	Osaka	11	4	5	2	7	17
8	Roasso Kumamoto	11	4	5	2	4	17
9	Parceiro Nagano	11	5	2	4	1	17
10	Kanazawa	11	4	2	5	2	14
11	Biwako Shiga	11	4	2	5	-2	14
12	FC Ryukyu	11	4	2	5	-2	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	4	2	5	-7	14
14	Kitakyushu	11	3	4	4	-4	13
15	Matsumoto Yamaga	11	2	5	4	-3	11
16	Tochigi SC	11	2	4	5	-5	10
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	11	3	1	7	-9	10
18	Fukushima United	11	2	2	7	-6	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	11	1	2	8	-11	5
20	Kochi United	11	1	2	8	-21	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sagamihara win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.