Sunpro Alwin · Analysis updated 21:36 UTC
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.49 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, a combined total of 2.51. That distribution gives Sanfrecce Hiroshima the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Matsumoto Yamaga home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 26% / 26% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.49 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, a combined 2.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–112.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–08.3%
Recent form
Matsumoto Yamaga
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Renofa Yamaguchi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Thespakusatsu Gunma · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Parceiro Nagano · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Kagoshima United · 1-0 (W)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- 2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sanga · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Tokyo Verdy · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Iwaki · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tochigi City · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sanfrecce Hiroshima win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.