Sunpro Alwin · Analysis updated 00:39 UTC
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Shonan Bellmare Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.10 for Shonan Bellmare, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Matsumoto Yamaga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.4% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Matsumoto Yamaga home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shonan Bellmare away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 10 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–110.0%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.4%
Recent form
Matsumoto Yamaga
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Renofa Yamaguchi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Thespakusatsu Gunma · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Parceiro Nagano · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Kagoshima United · 1-0 (W)
Shonan Bellmare
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Imabari · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vegalta Sendai · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · Matsumoto Yamaga 3-3 Shonan Bellmare (J-League Cup)
- 2019-12-07T05:00:00.000Z · Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Shonan Bellmare (J1 League)
- 2019-04-14T08:00:00.000Z · Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Shonan Bellmare (J1 League)
- 2017-08-05T10:00:00.000Z · Matsumoto Yamaga 1-2 Shonan Bellmare (J2 League)
- 2017-05-21T04:00:00.000Z · Matsumoto Yamaga 1-2 Shonan Bellmare (J2 League)
- 2015-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · Matsumoto Yamaga 3-2 Shonan Bellmare (Emperor Cup)
- 2015-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Shonan Bellmare (J1 League)
- 2015-06-27T10:00:00.000Z · Matsumoto Yamaga 2-3 Shonan Bellmare (J1 League)
- 2015-05-20T10:00:00.000Z · Matsumoto Yamaga 1-2 Shonan Bellmare (J-League Cup)
- 2014-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Shonan Bellmare (J2 League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.