Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.05 for Thespakusatsu Gunma, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Matsumoto Yamaga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Matsumoto Yamaga home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thespakusatsu Gunma away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Matsumoto Yamaga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 28% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.05 for Thespakusatsu Gunma, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Matsumoto Yamaga win42%

Draw28%

Thespakusatsu Gunma win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.0%
1–012.4%
0–110.0%
0–09.5%
2–18.5%

Recent form

Matsumoto Yamaga

2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Renofa Yamaguchi · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Thespakusatsu Gunma · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-18T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Parceiro Nagano · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Kagoshima United · 1-0 (W)

Thespakusatsu Gunma

2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ryukyu · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Ehime FC · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Roasso Kumamoto · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kochi United · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Renofa Yamaguchi · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J3 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	13	9	2	2	11	29
2	Ehime FC	13	8	2	3	11	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	13	8	2	3	10	26
4	Osaka	13	6	5	2	10	23
5	Roasso Kumamoto	13	6	5	2	8	23
6	Nara Club	13	7	2	4	2	23
7	FC Gifu	13	7	1	5	11	22
8	Sagamihara	13	6	4	3	7	22
9	FC Ryukyu	13	6	2	5	1	20
10	Kanazawa	13	5	2	6	4	17
11	Parceiro Nagano	13	5	2	6	-2	17
12	Kitakyushu	13	4	4	5	-3	16
13	Gainare Tottori	13	4	3	6	-10	15
14	Fukushima United	13	4	2	7	-3	14
15	Matsumoto Yamaga	13	3	5	5	-3	14
16	Tochigi SC	13	3	5	5	-4	14
17	Biwako Shiga	13	4	2	7	-7	14
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	13	4	1	8	-10	13
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	13	2	2	9	-10	8
20	Kochi United	13	1	3	9	-23	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.