Pappelstadion · Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Mattersburg SV 2020 vs First Vienna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Mattersburg SV 2020 and 1.53 for First Vienna, a combined total of 2.87. That distribution gives First Vienna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mattersburg SV 2020 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
First Vienna away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates First Vienna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 34% / 25% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Mattersburg SV 2020 and 1.53 for First Vienna, a combined 2.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
Mattersburg SV 2020
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Krems / Rehberg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Donau · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Leobendorf · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Wienerberg · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fach-Donaufeld · 2-0 (W)
First Vienna
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs WSPG Wels · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapid Wien II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Salzburg · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SKU Amstetten · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Admira Wacker · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.