· Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Maua vs Uniao Mogi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Maua and 1.19 for Uniao Mogi, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives Maua the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Maua win
51.6% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maua home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Uniao Mogi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–08.2%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
Maua
- 2026-07-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Uniao Mogi · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Uniao Mogi · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona EC · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-06-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Itaquá Athletico Clube · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Uniao Mogi · 0-0 (D)
Uniao Mogi
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Itaquá Athletico Clube · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Itaquá Athletico Clube · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Maua · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Maua · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Itaquá Athletico Clube · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-04T18:00:00.000Z · Maua 0-3 Uniao Mogi (Paulista Série B)
- 2026-06-27T18:00:00.000Z · Maua 3-2 Uniao Mogi (Paulista Série B)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · Maua 0-0 Uniao Mogi (Paulista Série B)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · Maua 3-2 Uniao Mogi (Paulista Série B)
- 2025-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · Maua 3-2 Uniao Mogi (Paulista Série B)
- 2025-05-10T18:00:00.000Z · Maua 3-3 Uniao Mogi (Paulista Série B)
- 2024-06-22T18:00:00.000Z · Maua 0-0 Uniao Mogi (Paulista Série B)
- 2024-05-18T18:00:00.000Z · Maua 1-0 Uniao Mogi (Paulista Série B)
Paulista Série B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Bonifácio | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 18 |
| 2 | America SP | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Assisense | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Tupa | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 5 | Riopretano | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 6 | Santa Fé FC | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Independente SP | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 2 | Matonense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Santacruzense | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Sao Carlos | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 |
| 5 | Mogi Mirim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Grêmio Catanduvense | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -32 | 0 |
| 1 | Flamengo SP | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Guarulhos | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Gremio Osasco Audax | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Sporting Paulinense | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 9 |
| 5 | Paulínia FU | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 6 | Votoraty | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 1 | Itaquá Athletico Clube | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | Maua | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 3 | Mauaense | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Uniao Mogi | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 5 | Manthiqueira | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 6 | Barcelona EC | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maua win, at 51.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.