· Analysis updated 13:25 UTC
Mbabane Swallows vs Moneni Pirates Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Mbabane Swallows and 0.95 for Moneni Pirates, a combined total of 1.58. That distribution gives Moneni Pirates the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 21% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
76.7% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mbabane Swallows home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Moneni Pirates away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–020.7%
- 0–119.7%
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–29.3%
Recent form
Mbabane Swallows
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Moneni Pirates · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Green Mamba · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Red Rhinos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Madlenya · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ubombo Sugar · 0-1 (L)
Moneni Pirates
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mbabane Swallows · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Red Rhinos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Ubombo Sugar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Young Buffaloes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Nsingizini Hotspurs · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-20T16:00:00.000Z · Mbabane Swallows 1-1 Moneni Pirates (Premier League)
- 2025-12-07T13:45:00.000Z · Mbabane Swallows 0-1 Moneni Pirates (Premier League)
- 2025-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · Mbabane Swallows 1-3 Moneni Pirates (Premier League)
- 2024-10-26T13:00:00.000Z · Mbabane Swallows 0-1 Moneni Pirates (Premier League)
- 2024-03-30T13:00:00.000Z · Mbabane Swallows 2-0 Moneni Pirates (Premier League)
- 2023-11-12T13:00:00.000Z · Mbabane Swallows 2-2 Moneni Pirates (Premier League)
- 2023-02-09T13:00:00.000Z · Mbabane Swallows 2-0 Moneni Pirates (Premier League)
- 2022-11-20T13:30:00.000Z · Mbabane Swallows 1-0 Moneni Pirates (Premier League)
- 2022-05-19T00:00:00.000Z · Mbabane Swallows 4-1 Moneni Pirates (Premier League)
- 2022-01-15T13:00:00.000Z · Mbabane Swallows 3-0 Moneni Pirates (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Leopards | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 2 | Green Mamba | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Moneni Pirates | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Young Buffaloes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Ubombo Sugar | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Amawele | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 7 | Nsingizini Hotspurs | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Highlanders | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Mbabane Swallows | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Ezulwini United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Rangers FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Madlenya | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | PPK Professionals | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Tabankulu | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Red Rhinos | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 | Manzini Sea Birds | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 76.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 21%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.