· Analysis updated 14:44 UTC
Mbarara City vs Lugazi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Mbarara City and 0.61 for Lugazi, a combined total of 1.61. That distribution gives Mbarara City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
78.2% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lugazi away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mbarara City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 34% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Mbarara City and 0.61 for Lugazi, a combined 1.61 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 22% and both teams to score at 29%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.0%
- 0–019.9%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–112.2%
- 2–010.0%
Recent form
Mbarara City
Lugazi
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs BUL · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maroons · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Police · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Entebbe UPPC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs NEC · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Villa | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 2 | NEC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 3 | BUL | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Vipers | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 |
| 6 | KCCA | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | Blacks Power | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Kitara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | UPDF | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Maroons | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Lugazi | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | Police | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 13 | Mbarara City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Express | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | URA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Kataka | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 2 |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 78.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.