· Analysis updated 02:09 UTC
MC Alger vs Khenchela Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for MC Alger and 0.53 for Khenchela, a combined total of 1.79. That distribution gives MC Alger the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
MC Alger win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 0.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MC Alger home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MC Alger to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 30% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for MC Alger and 0.53 for Khenchela, a combined 1.79 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 27% and both teams to score at 29%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–021.1%
- 0–016.7%
- 2–013.3%
- 1–111.1%
- 0–18.8%
Recent form
MC Alger
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs MB Rouisset · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NIGELEC · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs NIGELEC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 2-0 (W)
Khenchela
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MC Oran | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | CR Belouizdad | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | JS Kabylie | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | MB Rouisset | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | USM Alger | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Olympique Akbou | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | JS El Biar | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Témouchent | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | MC Alger | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Ben Aknoun | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | CS Constantine | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | ES Setif | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Khenchela | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | ASO Chlef | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | JS Saoura | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | US Biskra | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MC Alger win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.