· Analysis updated 15:55 UTC
MC Alger vs NIGELEC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for MC Alger and 0.72 for NIGELEC, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives MC Alger the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MC Alger win
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MC Alger home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
NIGELEC away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MC Alger to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 23% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for MC Alger and 0.72 for NIGELEC, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.7%
Recent form
MC Alger
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs MB Rouisset · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NIGELEC · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs NIGELEC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 2-0 (W)
NIGELEC
- 2025-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympique Safi · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympique Safi · 0-1 (L)
- 2022-11-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyramids FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2022-11-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pyramids FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2022-10-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Raja Casablanca · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MC Alger win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.