· Analysis updated 06:04 UTC
Mechelen II vs FC Lebbeke Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Mechelen II and 1.50 for FC Lebbeke, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Mechelen II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mechelen II home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Lebbeke away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mechelen II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Mechelen II and 1.50 for FC Lebbeke, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
Mechelen II
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Diksmuide · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oudenaarde · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Torhout · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Eendracht Aalst · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Lebbeke · 4-1 (W)
FC Lebbeke
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs RFC Wetteren · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs VW Hamme · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ninove · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs HO Kalken · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Eendracht Aalst · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - VFV A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eendracht Aalst | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Diksmuide | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Mechelen II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Oostkamp | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Sparta Petegem | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Voorde Appelterre | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Torhout | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Ninove | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | VW Hamme | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 10 | FC Lebbeke | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Londerzeel | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Zulte Waregem II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | RFC Wetteren | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | KRC Gent | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | HO Kalken | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Oudenaarde | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.