Stadion Het Breeven · Analysis updated 15:56 UTC
Mechelen II vs Zulte Waregem II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.66 expected goals for Mechelen II and 2.00 for Zulte Waregem II, a combined total of 4.66. That distribution gives Mechelen II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mechelen II win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
2.66 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mechelen II home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zulte Waregem II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mechelen II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 18% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.66 goals for Mechelen II and 2.00 for Zulte Waregem II, a combined 4.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–15.9%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.0%
Recent form
Mechelen II
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Diksmuide · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oudenaarde · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Torhout · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Eendracht Aalst · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Lebbeke · 4-1 (W)
Zulte Waregem II
- 2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Oudenaarde · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Eendracht Aalst · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs RFC Wetteren · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs VW Hamme · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs KRC Gent · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - VFV A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eendracht Aalst | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Diksmuide | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Mechelen II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Oostkamp | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Sparta Petegem | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Voorde Appelterre | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Torhout | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Ninove | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | VW Hamme | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 10 | FC Lebbeke | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Londerzeel | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Zulte Waregem II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | RFC Wetteren | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | KRC Gent | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | HO Kalken | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Oudenaarde | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mechelen II win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.