· Analysis updated 18:21 UTC
Mechtersheim vs Diefflen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for Mechtersheim and 1.23 for Diefflen, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Mechtersheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mechtersheim win
71.3% probability
Expected goals
2.88 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mechtersheim home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Diefflen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 3–18.0%
- 2–06.8%
- 3–06.6%
- 1–15.8%
Recent form
Mechtersheim
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wormatia Worms · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hertha Wiesbach · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs TuS Koblenz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gau-Odernheim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs RW Wittlich · 5-2 (W)
Diefflen
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ahrweiler · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mechtersheim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Wormatia Worms · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha Wiesbach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs TuS Koblenz · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-04-19T13:30:00.000Z · Mechtersheim 1-1 Diefflen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2024-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · Mechtersheim 2-2 Diefflen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2024-04-06T13:30:00.000Z · Mechtersheim 2-0 Diefflen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2023-09-16T13:30:00.000Z · Mechtersheim 1-2 Diefflen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2022-10-29T13:30:00.000Z · Mechtersheim 1-3 Diefflen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2022-08-14T13:00:00.000Z · Mechtersheim 2-3 Diefflen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2021-11-06T14:30:00.000Z · Mechtersheim 0-4 Diefflen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2021-09-04T13:30:00.000Z · Mechtersheim 0-5 Diefflen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2020-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · Mechtersheim 0-2 Diefflen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mechtersheim | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 31 |
| 2 | Schott Mainz | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 29 |
| 3 | Pirmasens | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 27 |
| 4 | Gonsenheim | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 25 |
| 5 | Gau-Odernheim | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 23 |
| 6 | TuS RW Koblenz | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | FV Engers 07 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 8 | TuS Koblenz | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 9 | FC Emmelshausen-Karbach | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 22 |
| 10 | Wormatia Worms | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 21 |
| 11 | RW Wittlich | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 21 |
| 12 | Elversberg II | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 13 | Hertha Wiesbach | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 14 | Auersmacher | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 15 |
| 15 | Cosmos Koblenz | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -9 | 13 |
| 16 | Ahrweiler | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -14 | 8 |
| 17 | Diefflen | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -22 | 8 |
| 18 | Eisbachtal | 14 | 0 | 1 | 13 | -42 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mechtersheim win, at 71.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.