· Analysis updated 20:46 UTC
Mecklenburg Schwerin vs Todesfelde Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for Mecklenburg Schwerin and 1.26 for Todesfelde, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Mecklenburg Schwerin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mecklenburg Schwerin win
61.2% probability
Expected goals
2.32 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mecklenburg Schwerin home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Todesfelde away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mecklenburg Schwerin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for Mecklenburg Schwerin and 1.26 for Todesfelde, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–07.5%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Mecklenburg Schwerin
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Neustrelitz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Hansa Rostock II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Anker Wismar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BAK '07 · 2-2 (D)
Todesfelde
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Lübeck · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Phönix Lübeck · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bremer SV · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas Delmenhorst · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-12T11:00:00.000Z · Mecklenburg Schwerin 0-1 Todesfelde (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mecklenburg Schwerin win, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.