· Analysis updated 06:36 UTC
Medeama vs Basake Holy Stars Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Medeama and 1.07 for Basake Holy Stars, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Medeama the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Medeama win
49.2% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Medeama home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Basake Holy Stars away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Medeama
- 2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Port City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Basake Holy Stars · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dreams · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vision · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TP Mazembe · 1-3 (L)
Basake Holy Stars
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Berekum Chelsea · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Medeama · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ashanti Gold · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Apostles · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Swedru All Blacks · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · Medeama 4-1 Basake Holy Stars (Premier League)
- 2026-05-27T17:00:00.000Z · Medeama 2-1 Basake Holy Stars (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · Medeama 1-0 Basake Holy Stars (Premier League)
- 2025-12-22T16:00:00.000Z · Medeama 1-1 Basake Holy Stars (Premier League)
- 2025-04-01T15:00:00.000Z · Medeama 2-1 Basake Holy Stars (Premier League)
- 2024-09-29T15:00:00.000Z · Medeama 2-1 Basake Holy Stars (Premier League)
- 2023-12-13T00:00:00.000Z · Medeama 1-0 Basake Holy Stars (Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Medeama win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.