Stadion SRC Mladost · Analysis updated 13:47 UTC
Medjimurje Cakovec vs Nedelišće Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Medjimurje Cakovec and 1.78 for Nedelišće, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Medjimurje Cakovec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Medjimurje Cakovec win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Medjimurje Cakovec home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nedelišće away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Medjimurje Cakovec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 21% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Medjimurje Cakovec and 1.78 for Nedelišće, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.1%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–15.9%
Recent form
Medjimurje Cakovec
- 2026-02-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Ždralovi · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-11-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Međimurec Pretetinec · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-22T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Slatina · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-11-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Domašinec · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Daruvar · 1-1 (D)
Nedelišće
- 2025-12-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Graničar Kotoriba · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-11-29T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Koprivnica · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-11-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Pitomača · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bilogora 91 · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-10-31T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Garić Garešnica · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · Medjimurje Cakovec 1-1 Nedelišće (Third NL - Sjever)
- 2025-05-17T15:30:00.000Z · Medjimurje Cakovec 3-2 Nedelišće (Third NL - Sjever)
- 2024-11-09T12:30:00.000Z · Medjimurje Cakovec 3-1 Nedelišće (Third NL - Sjever)
Third NL - Sjever table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Koprivnica | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 35 |
| 2 | Graničar Đurđevac | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 35 | 34 |
| 3 | Dinamo Predavac | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 31 |
| 4 | Rudar Mursko Središće | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Bilogora 91 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 25 |
| 6 | Međimurec Pretetinec | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 25 |
| 7 | Polet | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 23 |
| 8 | Graničar Kotoriba | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 21 |
| 9 | Pitomača | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -9 | 19 |
| 10 | Slatina | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 | Podravina Ludbreg | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -10 | 15 |
| 12 | Medjimurje Cakovec | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -9 | 13 |
| 13 | Garić Garešnica | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -13 | 13 |
| 14 | Daruvar | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 11 |
| 15 | Nedelišće | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | -16 | 10 |
| 16 | Dinamo Domašinec | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -25 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Medjimurje Cakovec win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.