· Analysis updated 09:54 UTC
Meerbusch vs SF Baumberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Meerbusch and 2.22 for SF Baumberg, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives SF Baumberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SF Baumberg win
54.7% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 2.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Meerbusch home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SF Baumberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 25% / 20% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Meerbusch and 2.22 for SF Baumberg, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.1%
- 1–18.2%
- 1–36.7%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–26.2%
Recent form
Meerbusch
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KFC Uerdingen 05 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SSVg Velbert · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sonsbeck · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SW Essen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Scherpenberg · 0-0 (D)
SF Baumberg
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Niederrhein table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schonnebeck | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 29 |
| 2 | SSVg Velbert | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 24 |
| 3 | Fortuna Düsseldorf II | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | Monheim | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 5 | SC St. Tönis | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 6 | Sonsbeck | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | SF Baumberg | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | BW Dingden | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | Solingen-Wald | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | KFC Uerdingen 05 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
| 11 | Germania Ratingen | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 12 | Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 | Wuppertaler SV | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 |
| 14 | Scherpenberg | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 | Büderich | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -14 | 7 |
| 16 | SW Essen | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 6 |
| 17 | Meerbusch | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 5 |
| 18 | Holzheimer SG | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -22 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SF Baumberg win, at 54.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.