Hang Jebat Stadium · Referee A. Z. Dzulkifli · Analysis updated 20:21 UTC
Melaka vs Kelantan United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Melaka and 0.90 for Kelantan United, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Melaka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Melaka win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Melaka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 26% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Melaka and 0.90 for Kelantan United, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 53% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 70/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Melaka
Kelantan United
- 2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Negeri Sembilan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 1-14 (L)
- 2026-04-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Selangor · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-04-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kuala Lumpur FA · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Melaka · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 18 |
| 2 | Selangor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | Kuching FA | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | DPMM FC Brunei | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 5 | Sabah FA | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Melaka | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Kuala Lumpur FA | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 6 |
| 8 | Negeri Sembilan | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Terengganu | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Imigresen | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 5 |
| 11 | Penang | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Kelantan Red Warrior FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -23 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Melaka win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.