Hang Jebat Stadium · Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
Melaka vs Negeri Sembilan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Melaka and 1.64 for Negeri Sembilan, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives Melaka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Negeri Sembilan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Melaka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 22% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Melaka and 1.64 for Negeri Sembilan, a combined 3.44 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.8%
Recent form
Melaka
Negeri Sembilan
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Kelantan City · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Imigresen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kelantan City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Melaka · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 18 |
| 2 | Selangor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | Kuching FA | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | DPMM FC Brunei | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 5 | Sabah FA | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Melaka | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Kuala Lumpur FA | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 6 |
| 8 | Negeri Sembilan | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Terengganu | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Imigresen | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 5 |
| 11 | Penang | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Kelantan Red Warrior FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -23 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.