Melbourne City II vs Heidelberg United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Melbourne City II and 1.15 for Heidelberg United, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Melbourne City II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Melbourne City II win

45.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Melbourne City II home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heidelberg United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Melbourne City II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Melbourne City II and 1.15 for Heidelberg United, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Melbourne City II win45%

Draw26%

Heidelberg United win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.6%
2–19.1%
0–18.1%
2–07.9%

Recent form

Melbourne City II

2026-08-29T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Green Gully · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Bentleigh Greens · 2-6 (L)
2026-08-19T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Preston Lions · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-15T05:00:00.000Z · H vs South Melbourne · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Hume City · 0-1 (L)

Heidelberg United

2026-09-06T07:00:00.000Z · A vs South Melbourne · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Bentleigh Greens · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-23T05:30:00.000Z · A vs South Melbourne · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-15T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Hume City · 4-5 (L)
2026-08-12T09:45:00.000Z · A vs North Sunshine Eagles · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Victoria NPL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	26	16	6	4	32	54
2	Preston Lions	26	15	6	5	22	51
3	Hume City	26	15	4	7	15	49
4	Avondale	26	15	2	9	31	47
5	South Melbourne	26	13	2	11	3	41
6	Heidelberg United	26	11	7	8	8	40
7	Sunshine Georgies	26	9	11	6	1	38
8	Dandenong City	26	10	7	9	4	37
9	St. Albans Saints	26	9	7	10	-7	34
10	Melbourne City II	26	8	6	12	0	30
11	Altona Magic	26	7	7	12	-14	28
12	Bentleigh Greens	26	6	6	14	-24	24
13	Green Gully	26	4	6	16	-29	18
14	Dandenong Thunder	26	4	3	19	-42	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Melbourne City II win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.