Melbourne Srbija vs North Geelong Warriors Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Melbourne Srbija and 0.92 for North Geelong Warriors, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Melbourne Srbija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Melbourne Srbija win

59.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Melbourne Srbija home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
North Geelong Warriors away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Melbourne Srbija to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Melbourne Srbija and 0.92 for North Geelong Warriors, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Melbourne Srbija win59%

Draw22%

North Geelong Warriors win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.5%
1–110.7%
2–010.7%
2–19.9%
3–06.6%

Recent form

Melbourne Srbija

2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Brunswick City · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-22T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Bulleen Lions · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Brunswick Juventus FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T05:00:00.000Z · H vs North Geelong Warriors · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-03T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Melbourne Victory II · 0-1 (L)

North Geelong Warriors

2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Langwarrin · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Western United II · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-15T07:15:00.000Z · A vs Brunswick City · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-08T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Melbourne Srbija · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Bulleen Lions · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Victoria NPL 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Brunswick Juventus FC	26	17	2	7	18	53
2	Melbourne Knights	26	16	4	6	25	52
3	Northcote City	26	15	4	7	15	49
4	Bulleen Lions	26	14	6	6	18	48
5	Melbourne Victory II	26	14	4	8	23	46
6	Eltham Redbacks FC	26	11	6	9	17	39
7	Melbourne Srbija	26	12	3	11	4	39
8	Brunswick City	26	10	3	13	-2	33
9	North Geelong Warriors	26	10	2	14	-15	32
10	Langwarrin	26	8	6	12	-8	30
11	Manningham United Blues	26	9	3	14	-20	30
12	North Sunshine Eagles	26	7	5	14	-5	26
13	Western United II	26	8	1	17	-26	25
14	Port Melbourne	26	4	5	17	-44	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Melbourne Srbija win, at 59.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.