· Analysis updated 11:06 UTC
Melbourne Victory II vs Port Melbourne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.93 expected goals for Melbourne Victory II and 0.87 for Port Melbourne, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Melbourne Victory II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Melbourne Victory II win
79.0% probability
Expected goals
2.93 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Melbourne Victory II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Port Melbourne away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Melbourne Victory II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 13% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.93 goals for Melbourne Victory II and 0.87 for Port Melbourne, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.6%
- 3–09.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 3–18.2%
- 4–06.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 5.00 | 19.0% | 21.0% | 4.76 | +2.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.10 | 44.0% | 45.2% | 2.21 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.15 | 78.8% | 79.0% | 1.27 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 11.00 | 8.2% | 8.2% | 12.20 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 7.00 | 12.9% | 12.8% | 7.81 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.03 | 92.2% | 91.8% | 1.09 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 56.0% | 54.8% | 1.82 | -1.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.07 | 88.8% | 87.2% | 1.15 | -1.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Melbourne Victory II
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Northcote City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Eltham Redbacks FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Port Melbourne · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T05:15:00.000Z · A vs Manningham United Blues · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-17T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Northcote City · 0-1 (L)
Port Melbourne
- 2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Melbourne Victory II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Eltham Redbacks FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne Knights · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T05:15:00.000Z · A vs Manningham United Blues · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Northcote City · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Victoria NPL 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunswick Juventus FC | 26 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 53 |
| 2 | Melbourne Knights | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 52 |
| 3 | Northcote City | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 49 |
| 4 | Bulleen Lions | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 48 |
| 5 | Melbourne Victory II | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 46 |
| 6 | Eltham Redbacks FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 39 |
| 7 | Melbourne Srbija | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 39 |
| 8 | Brunswick City | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | -2 | 33 |
| 9 | North Geelong Warriors | 26 | 10 | 2 | 14 | -15 | 32 |
| 10 | Langwarrin | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -8 | 30 |
| 11 | Manningham United Blues | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | -20 | 30 |
| 12 | North Sunshine Eagles | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Western United II | 26 | 8 | 1 | 17 | -26 | 25 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -44 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Melbourne Victory II win, at 79.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.