AAMI Park · Referee Clifford Postanes Daypuyat · Analysis updated 13:12 UTC
Melbourne Victory vs FC Seoul Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Melbourne Victory and 0.64 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Melbourne Victory the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Melbourne Victory win
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Melbourne Victory home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
FC Seoul away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Melbourne Victory to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 21% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Melbourne Victory and 0.64 for FC Seoul, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 2–014.2%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–09.0%
Recent form
Melbourne Victory
- 2026-09-16T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Viettel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sydney · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Western Sydney Wanderers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Kingborough Lions · 4-0 (W)
FC Seoul
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeju United FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Pohang Steelers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Persib Bandung · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Jeonbuk Motors · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Ulsan Hyundai FC · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2020-12-03T13:00:00.000Z · Melbourne Victory 2-1 FC Seoul (AFC Champions League)
- 2020-02-18T10:30:00.000Z · Melbourne Victory 0-1 FC Seoul (AFC Champions League)
AFC Champions League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Wahda FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Al Kuwait | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Nasaf | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Khalidiya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Arkadag | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Muharraq | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Gol Gohar | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Al Taawon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Al-Rayyan SC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Al Faisaly | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Al-Nahda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Al Shorta | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Al Hussein | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | East Bengal | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Al Seeb | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Persib Bandung | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Melbourne Victory | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Viettel | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | FC Seoul | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Adelaide United | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Home United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | BG Pathum United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Wofoo Tai Po | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Shanghai Shenhua | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Svay Rieng | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | Tampines Rovers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 1 | Phnom Penh Crown | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Kitchee | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Kuching FA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Gangwon FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Melbourne Victory win, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.