Melhus vs Aalesund II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Melhus and 1.45 for Aalesund II, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives Melhus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Melhus win

60.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.53 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Melhus home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aalesund II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Melhus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 18% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.53 goals for Melhus and 1.45 for Aalesund II, a combined 3.97 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Melhus win61%

Draw18%

Aalesund II win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals56%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

2–18.7%
3–17.3%
1–16.9%
2–26.3%
2–06.0%

Recent form

Melhus

2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranheim II · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund II · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosenborg II · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spjelkavik · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Molde II · 0-1 (L)

Aalesund II

2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Melhus · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NTNUI · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg II · 1-7 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Orkla · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Spjelkavik · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Strindheim	24	16	4	4	39	52
2	Volda	24	16	4	4	38	52
3	Melhus	24	12	5	7	26	41
4	Byåsen	24	11	5	8	7	38
5	Molde II	24	10	5	9	-11	35
6	Rosenborg II	24	10	4	10	9	34
7	Nardo	24	10	3	11	14	33
8	Herd	24	9	5	10	-7	32
9	Spjelkavik	24	8	5	11	-8	29
10	NTNUI	24	7	7	10	-16	28
11	Ranheim II	24	7	5	12	-17	26
12	Kvik Trondheim	24	7	5	12	-21	26
13	Aalesund II	24	7	4	13	-23	25
14	Orkla	24	5	5	14	-30	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Melhus win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.