· Analysis updated 17:39 UTC
Melhus vs Spjelkavik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Melhus and 1.80 for Spjelkavik, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives Melhus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Melhus win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Melhus home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spjelkavik away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Melhus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 20% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Melhus and 1.80 for Spjelkavik, a combined 4.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–16.6%
- 3–16.2%
- 1–25.9%
Recent form
Melhus
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranheim II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosenborg II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spjelkavik · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Molde II · 0-1 (L)
Spjelkavik
- 2026-10-09T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Herd · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ranheim II · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Melhus · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Aalesund II · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strindheim | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 39 | 52 |
| 2 | Volda | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 38 | 52 |
| 3 | Melhus | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 41 |
| 4 | Byåsen | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 38 |
| 5 | Molde II | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | -11 | 35 |
| 6 | Rosenborg II | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 34 |
| 7 | Nardo | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 33 |
| 8 | Herd | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -7 | 32 |
| 9 | Spjelkavik | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -8 | 29 |
| 10 | NTNUI | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -16 | 28 |
| 11 | Ranheim II | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -17 | 26 |
| 12 | Kvik Trondheim | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -21 | 26 |
| 13 | Aalesund II | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -23 | 25 |
| 14 | Orkla | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -30 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Melhus win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.