Melksham Town vs Yate Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Melksham Town and 1.18 for Yate Town, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Melksham Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Melksham Town home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yate Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Melksham Town win43%

Draw26%

Yate Town win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.4%
1–010.5%
2–18.9%
0–18.6%
2–07.5%

Recent form

Melksham Town

2026-07-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Yate Town · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeovil Town · 1-4 (L)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Falmouth Town · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-18T14:00:22.000Z · H vs Frome Town · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-11T14:00:22.000Z · A vs Hartpury University · 1-0 (W)

Yate Town

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sholing · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chippenham Town · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chippenham Town · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanworth Villa · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Devizes Town · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-24T19:00:00.000Z · Melksham Town 2-1 Yate Town (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · Melksham Town 1-1 Yate Town (Non League Div One - Southern South)
2024-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · Melksham Town 1-1 Yate Town (Non League Div One - Southern South)
2024-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · Melksham Town 0-3 Yate Town (FA Trophy)
2024-02-03T15:00:00.000Z · Melksham Town 1-4 Yate Town (Non League Div One - Southern South)
2023-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · Melksham Town 0-3 Yate Town (Non League Div One - Southern South)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.