· Analysis updated 03:04 UTC
Melksham Town vs Yeovil Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Melksham Town and 1.79 for Yeovil Town, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Yeovil Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yeovil Town win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Melksham Town home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yeovil Town away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yeovil Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 27% / 23% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Melksham Town and 1.79 for Yeovil Town, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.7%
Recent form
Melksham Town
- 2026-07-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Yate Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeovil Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Falmouth Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:22.000Z · H vs Frome Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:22.000Z · A vs Hartpury University · 1-0 (W)
Yeovil Town
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Leatherhead · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leatherhead · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wealdstone · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Boston United · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Worthing · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yeovil Town win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.