Stadiumi Karafil Çaushi · Analysis updated 17:49 UTC
Memaliaj vs Oriku Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.33 expected goals for Memaliaj and 3.59 for Oriku, a combined total of 3.92. That distribution gives Oriku the largest share of the 1X2 market at 93%, with the draw at 5%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 93% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oriku win
93.4% probability
Expected goals
0.33 – 3.59
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oriku away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oriku to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 93%, against 1% / 5% / 93% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.33 goals for Memaliaj and 3.59 for Oriku, a combined 3.92 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 27%, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
7%
Double chance 12
95%
Double chance X2
99%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–315.2%
- 0–413.7%
- 0–212.7%
- 0–59.8%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Memaliaj
Oriku
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Luftëtari · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Kukesi · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tomori Berat · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Butrinti Sarandë · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Memaliaj · 7-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2nd Division - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luftëtari | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 45 | 51 |
| 2 | Oriku | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 51 |
| 3 | Tomori Berat | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 35 |
| 4 | Devolli | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 34 |
| 5 | Butrinti Sarandë | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 33 |
| 6 | Delvina | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 26 |
| 7 | Shkumbini Peqin | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -14 | 20 |
| 8 | Maliqi | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -11 | 20 |
| 9 | Këlcyra | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -12 | 20 |
| 10 | Turbina Cërrik | 20 | 6 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 19 |
| 11 | Memaliaj | 20 | 1 | 1 | 18 | -64 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oriku win, at 93.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 93% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.