· Analysis updated 04:39 UTC
Memmingen vs Essingen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Memmingen and 1.07 for Essingen, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Memmingen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Memmingen win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Memmingen home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Essingen away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Memmingen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 26% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Memmingen and 1.07 for Essingen, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–18.3%
Recent form
Memmingen
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eltersdorf · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nürnberg II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Greuther Fürth II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eichstätt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aubstadt · 1-0 (W)
Essingen
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Backnang · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Normannia Gmünd · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Reutlingen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC 08 Villingen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Nöttingen · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Memmingen win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.