Memmingen vs SpVgg Unterhaching Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Memmingen and 1.25 for SpVgg Unterhaching, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Memmingen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Memmingen win

49.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Memmingen home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SpVgg Unterhaching away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Memmingen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Memmingen and 1.25 for SpVgg Unterhaching, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Memmingen win49%

Draw24%

SpVgg Unterhaching win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.9%
2–19.5%
1–08.7%
2–07.6%
1–26.8%

Recent form

Memmingen

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aubstadt · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Buchbach · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Illertissen · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wacker Burghausen · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilzing · 0-0 (D)

SpVgg Unterhaching

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ansbach · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilzing · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Landsberg · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München II · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Schweinfurt 05 · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Bayern table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Memmingen	16	10	3	3	10	33
2	Buchbach	16	8	5	3	7	29
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	15	7	7	1	10	28
4	TSV 1860 München	15	7	6	2	12	27
5	Augsburg II	15	7	3	5	-1	24
6	Illertissen	15	6	5	4	8	23
7	Bayreuth	15	7	1	7	8	22
8	Vilzing	14	5	6	3	1	21
9	Eichstätt	16	6	3	7	-6	21
10	Wacker Burghausen	15	5	5	5	7	20
11	Nürnberg II	14	6	2	6	6	20
12	Bayern München II	13	5	4	4	4	19
13	Eltersdorf	15	4	6	5	-1	18
14	Schwaben Augsburg	15	5	3	7	-9	18
15	FC Schweinfurt 05	15	4	5	6	-10	17
16	Greuther Fürth II	15	3	4	8	-6	13
17	Ansbach	15	3	3	9	-17	12
18	Aubstadt	15	2	5	8	-7	11
19	Landsberg	15	1	6	8	-16	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Memmingen win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.