· Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Mendrisio vs Locarno Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Mendrisio and 1.38 for Locarno, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Mendrisio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mendrisio home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Locarno away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mendrisio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Mendrisio and 1.38 for Locarno, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–08.7%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.3%
Recent form
Mendrisio
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dietikon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Tuggen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wettswil-Bonstetten · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Gallen II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Eschen / Mauren · 3-4 (L)
Locarno
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kosova · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Thalwil · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Baden · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gossau · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Taverne · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Gallen II | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 22 |
| 2 | Tuggen | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | Taverne | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Thalwil | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Baden | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Kosova | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Collina d'Oro | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Dietikon | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Gossau | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 | Eschen / Mauren | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Locarno | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Freienbach | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Wettswil-Bonstetten | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Winterthur II | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | Mendrisio | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Widnau | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.