· Analysis updated 07:37 UTC
Meppen U19 vs Paderborn U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.68 expected goals for Meppen U19 and 1.00 for Paderborn U19, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Meppen U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Meppen U19 win
72.8% probability
Expected goals
2.68 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Meppen U19 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paderborn U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Meppen U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 16% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.68 goals for Meppen U19 and 1.00 for Paderborn U19, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–08.1%
- 3–18.1%
- 1–06.8%
Recent form
Meppen U19
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 U19 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Paderborn U19 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolfsburg U19 · 1-2 (L)
Paderborn U19
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 U19 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsburg U19 · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Meppen U19 win, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.