Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava · Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Merani Martvili vs Gareji Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Merani Martvili and 0.93 for Gareji, a combined total of 1.78. That distribution gives Gareji the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.6% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Merani Martvili home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gareji away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gareji to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 31% / 33% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Merani Martvili and 0.93 for Gareji, a combined 1.78 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.9%
- 0–115.7%
- 1–014.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–27.3%
Recent form
Merani Martvili
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Samtredia · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sioni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aragvi Dusheti · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Poti · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gareji · 1-2 (L)
Gareji
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Aragvi Dusheti · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Telavi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Odishi 1919 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Shturmi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gori · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Erovnuli Liga 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareji | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 54 |
| 2 | Shturmi | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
| 3 | Telavi | 30 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 47 |
| 4 | Merani Martvili | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | -6 | 40 |
| 5 | Samtredia | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 40 |
| 6 | Aragvi Dusheti | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | -9 | 39 |
| 7 | Odishi 1919 | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 38 |
| 8 | Sioni | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -2 | 36 |
| 9 | Gori | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 33 |
| 10 | Kolkheti Poti | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 32 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.