Merani Tbilisi vs FC Iberia 1999 II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Merani Tbilisi and 1.49 for FC Iberia 1999 II, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives FC Iberia 1999 II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.49

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Merani Tbilisi home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Iberia 1999 II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Iberia 1999 II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 31% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Merani Tbilisi and 1.49 for FC Iberia 1999 II, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Merani Tbilisi win31%

Draw25%

FC Iberia 1999 II win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.1%
0–19.8%
1–29.0%
1–08.1%
2–17.4%

Recent form

Merani Tbilisi

2026-10-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Iveria Khashuri · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Iberia 2010 · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolkheti Khobi · 4-1 (W)

FC Iberia 1999 II

2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs WIT Georgia · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Varketili · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi II · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gonio · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Guria · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guria	25	17	5	3	56	56
2	Varketili	25	16	8	1	44	56
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	25	12	10	3	22	46
4	Gonio	25	13	5	7	10	44
5	Merani Tbilisi	25	12	7	6	7	43
6	WIT Georgia	25	11	5	9	9	38
7	Irao	25	10	6	9	10	36
8	Dinamo Tbilisi II	25	10	6	9	3	36
9	Didube 2014	25	9	8	8	3	35
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	25	9	7	9	3	34
11	Margveti 2006	25	10	4	11	-8	34
12	Kolkheti Khobi	25	7	5	13	-15	26
13	Iveria Khashuri	25	3	11	11	-14	20
14	Gardabani	25	4	4	17	-42	16
15	Betlemi	25	4	4	17	-51	16
16	Iberia 2010	25	3	5	17	-37	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.