Merani Tbilisi vs Gardabani Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.84 expected goals for Merani Tbilisi and 0.73 for Gardabani, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Merani Tbilisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Merani Tbilisi win

80.6% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.84 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Merani Tbilisi home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Merani Tbilisi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 13% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.84 goals for Merani Tbilisi and 0.73 for Gardabani, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 49%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Merani Tbilisi win81%

Draw13%

Gardabani win7%

Double chance 1X

93%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

19%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

2–011.4%
3–010.7%
2–18.3%
1–08.0%
3–17.8%

Recent form

Merani Tbilisi

2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Iberia 2010 · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolkheti Khobi · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Margveti 2006 · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gardabani · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Betlemi · 2-0 (W)

Gardabani

2026-09-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Betlemi · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Merani Tbilisi · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Didube 2014 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Irao · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs WIT Georgia · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guria	24	17	4	3	56	55
2	Varketili	24	15	8	1	43	53
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	24	11	10	3	18	43
4	Merani Tbilisi	23	11	7	5	10	40
5	WIT Georgia	23	11	5	7	12	38
6	Gonio	23	11	5	7	8	38
7	Irao	23	10	5	8	11	35
8	Didube 2014	24	9	8	7	4	35
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	23	9	5	9	1	32
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	23	8	7	8	1	31
11	Margveti 2006	24	9	4	11	-9	31
12	Kolkheti Khobi	24	7	4	13	-15	25
13	Iveria Khashuri	24	2	11	11	-16	17
14	Gardabani	24	4	4	16	-40	16
15	Betlemi	24	4	4	16	-48	16
16	Iberia 2010	24	3	5	16	-36	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Merani Tbilisi win, at 80.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.