· Analysis updated 23:31 UTC
Merani Tbilisi vs Kolkheti Khobi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Merani Tbilisi and 1.25 for Kolkheti Khobi, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Merani Tbilisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Merani Tbilisi win
55.3% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Merani Tbilisi home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kolkheti Khobi away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–07.7%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Merani Tbilisi
- 2026-10-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Iveria Khashuri · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Iberia 2010 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolkheti Khobi · 4-1 (W)
Kolkheti Khobi
- 2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Betlemi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Merani Tbilisi · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Didube 2014 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Irao · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs WIT Georgia · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · Merani Tbilisi 4-1 Kolkheti Khobi (Liga 3)
- 2026-04-16T12:00:00.000Z · Merani Tbilisi 3-3 Kolkheti Khobi (Liga 3)
- 2025-10-30T11:00:00.000Z · Merani Tbilisi 3-1 Kolkheti Khobi (Liga 3)
- 2025-05-29T13:00:00.000Z · Merani Tbilisi 1-1 Kolkheti Khobi (Liga 3)
- 2023-10-27T11:00:00.000Z · Merani Tbilisi 1-1 Kolkheti Khobi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2023-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · Merani Tbilisi 0-2 Kolkheti Khobi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2023-05-15T12:30:00.000Z · Merani Tbilisi 0-5 Kolkheti Khobi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2023-03-18T11:00:00.000Z · Merani Tbilisi 0-2 Kolkheti Khobi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guria | 25 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 56 | 56 |
| 2 | Varketili | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 44 | 56 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 II | 25 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 22 | 46 |
| 4 | Gonio | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | Merani Tbilisi | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | WIT Georgia | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 38 |
| 7 | Irao | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 36 |
| 8 | Dinamo Tbilisi II | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 36 |
| 9 | Didube 2014 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 35 |
| 10 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 34 |
| 11 | Margveti 2006 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -8 | 34 |
| 12 | Kolkheti Khobi | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 26 |
| 13 | Iveria Khashuri | 25 | 3 | 11 | 11 | -14 | 20 |
| 14 | Gardabani | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | -42 | 16 |
| 15 | Betlemi | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | -51 | 16 |
| 16 | Iberia 2010 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -37 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Merani Tbilisi win, at 55.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.