· Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
Mercadal vs PE Sant Jordi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Mercadal and 1.36 for PE Sant Jordi, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives PE Sant Jordi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mercadal home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
PE Sant Jordi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates PE Sant Jordi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 35% / 26% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Mercadal and 1.36 for PE Sant Jordi, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Mercadal
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Santanyí · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arenal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Ibiza · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Formentera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcúdia · 3-2 (W)
PE Sant Jordi
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Ibiza · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Formentera · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Andratx · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sineu · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Migjorn · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Constància | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Manacor | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | Platges Calvià | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Cardassar | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Santanyí | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Formentera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | PE Sant Jordi | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Llosetense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Alcúdia | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Porreres | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Binissalem | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 14 | Andratx | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Migjorn | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 | Arenal | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | Sineu | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | Inter Ibiza | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.