· Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Merelbeke vs AS Eupen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Merelbeke and 1.55 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Merelbeke the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Merelbeke home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AS Eupen away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Merelbeke to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.56 goals for Merelbeke and 1.55 for AS Eupen, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 1–07.0%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Merelbeke
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tienen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dessel Sport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Eupen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Harelbeke · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spouwen-Mopertingen · 0-1 (L)
AS Eupen
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs RSC Anderlecht II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Alemannia Aachen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Merelbeke · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Liège · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Patro Eisden · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dender | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 2 | Lokeren-Temse | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Seraing United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Liège | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Excelsior Virton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Beerschot VA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Nijlen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Sporting Hasselt | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Rochefort | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Patro Eisden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | AS Eupen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Francs Borains | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Heist | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | Kortrijk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Habay-la-Neuve | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Olympic Charleroi | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | K. Lierse S.K. | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Roeselare Daisel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Diegem Sport | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Merelbeke | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Crossing Schaerbeek | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Mandel United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | Rupel Boom | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Diksmuide | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Knokke | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 28 | Wellen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 29 | Oostkamp | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 30 | Londerzeel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Houtvenne | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 32 | Hoogstraten | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.