· Analysis updated 06:12 UTC
Merelbeke vs Dessel Sport Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Merelbeke and 3.00 for Dessel Sport, a combined total of 6.00. That distribution gives Merelbeke the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 90% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
58.4% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Merelbeke home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dessel Sport away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–25.0%
- 2–35.0%
- 3–25.0%
- 3–35.0%
- 2–43.8%
Recent form
Merelbeke
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tienen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dessel Sport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Eupen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Harelbeke · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spouwen-Mopertingen · 0-1 (L)
Dessel Sport
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Cercle Brugge II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Houtvenne · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoogstraten · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tienen · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Hasselt · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-31T18:30:00.000Z · Merelbeke 1-2 Dessel Sport (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-11-22T18:30:00.000Z · Merelbeke 1-1 Dessel Sport (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-01-25T18:30:00.000Z · Merelbeke 1-5 Dessel Sport (First Amateur Division)
- 2024-11-09T18:30:00.000Z · Merelbeke 1-3 Dessel Sport (First Amateur Division)
- 2024-08-24T18:00:00.000Z · Merelbeke 0-2 Dessel Sport (Cup)
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rochefort | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Meux | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | RWDM | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Tubize | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Olympic Charleroi | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 12 |
| 9 | Sporting Charleroi II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 90% and over 2.5 goals at 93%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.